**Scientific supplementary analysis to:** Mildner, S. (2025/2026). *A new interpretation of Ptolemy's Germania Magna*. EarthArXiv (Preprint). https://doi.org/10.31223/X5313T
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## 1. Synthesis of Evidence Chains: The Necessity of an Integrated View
The statistically secured findings of the preceding residual analysis – a highly significant eastward offset of the Elster-Lusatia Cluster of $\overline{\Delta}_\lambda \approx -93{.}1$ km ($t = -13{.}7$, $p < 0{.}001$) and the geochemical convergence of the cartometric identification *Budorigum* = Doberlug-Kirchhain with the local anthracite stress metamorphism anomaly – demand a geophysical explanation that goes beyond a purely statistical coordinate analysis. The four key publications under consideration (Nielsen et al., 2007; Arfai et al., 2018; Götze et al., 2023/2024; Weninger et al., 2008), together with Kužvart (1992) and Geersen et al. (2024), provide methodologically heterogeneous but independently derived building blocks that are systematically evaluated below and synthesised with the Mildner model. Particular attention is devoted to the Mercator map cited by Mildner, which shows a landmass named *Albionis Pars* in the *Oceanus Germanicus*, and to the hypothesis that a triggered tsunami may have contributed to an additional northward migration of the coastline through sediment deposition along the North German coast.
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## 2. The Reactivatability of the Caledonian Deformation Front: Plate Stress Transmission According to Nielsen, Stephenson & Thomsen (2007)
### 2.1 Core Finding of the Study
Nielsen et al. (2007) demonstrated, through high-resolution nannoplankton chronostratigraphy of the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone (STZ) in the eastern North Sea Basin, a direct causal link between the onset of mid-Palaeocene North Atlantic rifting (~62 Ma ago) and an abrupt, plate-wide synchronous change in the intra-European stress regime. This event terminated approximately 20 million years of compressional inversion (Late Cretaceous to earliest Palaeocene) and replaced it with low-amplitude stress relaxation. Using an elastic spherical shell model (Young's modulus $E = 70$ GPa, Poisson's ratio $\nu = 0{.}25$, effective elastic plate thickness $T_e \approx 7$ km), the authors calculated the compressive force of the Africa–Europe convergence as:
$$\sigma_{\text{Africa-Europe}} \approx 3{-}4 \times 10^{12}\,\text{N\,m}^{-1}$$
This force demonstrably induced a flexural deepening of the European inversion basins of amplitudes on the order of $10^2$ m. Conversely, relaxation through the left-lateral displacement along the proto-North Atlantic fracture system produced domal uplift of identical amplitude. Crucially for Mildner's model, Nielsen et al.'s conclusion is: *The European plate system can respond plate-wide and near-instantaneously to changes in plate boundary forces – without any thermal mantle plume being required as a driving mechanism.*
### 2.2 Relevance for CDF Reactivation in Mildner's Framework
The mechanical core statement of Nielsen et al. (2007) – that European lithosphere is highly sensitive to plate boundary force changes – establishes the physical plausibility of Mildner's CDF reactivation hypothesis, even though the latter operates in a completely different temporal horizon (~1,400 years rather than ~62 Ma). For the transmission of stress from a source (e.g., postulated impact structures) over a distance $r$ to a target (CDF), an exponential attenuation law can be formulated:
$$\sigma_{\text{CDF}} = \sigma_0 \cdot \exp\!\left(-\frac{r}{L_e}\right)$$
where $L_e$ denotes the elastic relaxation length of the European plate. Based on the shell parameters used by Nielsen et al., $L_e \approx 700{-}1000$ km. For a source distance of $r \approx 450$ km (distance Český Kráter – CDF main trace towards the north-northwest), it follows:
$$\frac{\sigma_{\text{CDF}}}{\sigma_0} = \exp\!\left(-\frac{450}{850}\right) \approx \exp(-0{.}529) \approx 0{.}59$$
Approximately **59% of the applied source stress** would, according to this model, reach the CDF – a sufficient magnitude for tectonic reactivation if $\sigma_0$ reaches the order of a significant impact-induced or tectonic impulse. This finding structurally supports Mildner's hypothesis without verifying his specific temporal horizon.
Additionally, Deutschmann et al. (2018) document, from reprocessed offshore seismic profiles west of Rügen, six polyphase reactivation episodes of the TESZ weakness zone from the Caledonian through to Late Cretaceous inversion tectonics, thereby identifying the CDF/TESZ structure as a long-lived lithospheric heterogeneity with documented multiple reactivations.
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## 3. Anomalous Quaternary Subsidence in the North Sea: Arfai et al. (2018) as a Structural Indicator Field
### 3.1 Data Findings
Based on an ensemble of four commercial 3D seismic surveys (\~4,000 km²) and 29 exploration wells, Arfai et al. (2018) determined a maximum local thickness of the Quaternary sedimentary succession in the northwestern German North Sea sector of **1,045 m** with subsidence rates of up to **480 m/Ma** – a more than tenfold increase over Cenozoic average rates (\~45 m/Ma). The calculation of load-induced subsidence followed the Airy isostasy model:
$$y_{\text{Airy}} = S^* \cdot \frac{\rho_s}{\rho_m} = 1045\,\text{m} \cdot \frac{2080}{3270} \approx 665\,\text{m}$$
Including the compaction calculation ($150{-}250$ m for Neogene and Palaeogene strata), a total explained subsidence of:
$$y_{\text{total}} = y_{\text{Airy}} + y_{\text{Compact}} \approx 665 + 200 = 865\,\text{m}$$
The observed maximum of **1,045 m** exceeds this value by:
$$\Delta y_{\text{Residual}} = 1045 - 865 = 180\,\text{m} \quad (\approx 17\,\%)$$
This residual amount remains **unexplained**. Arfai et al. rule out renewed tectonic rifting activity (no evidence of extensional faults in the seismic dataset), dismiss salt diapirism (depocentre offset $>50$ km relative to Mesozoic structures), and consider lithospheric buckling "unlikely".
### 3.2 Mildner's Reinterpretation
Mildner (2025/2026) postulates that the North Sea Central Graben is to be understood not primarily as a classical extensional structure, but as a **compressional syncline** resulting from NNE-SSW directed folding – comparable to a foreland basin of an orogenic front in the north (Scandinavia). The NNW-SSE orientation of the depocentre is not, in Mildner's view, an argument against buckling (Arfai et al., 2018, p. 8), but rather the **syncline axis** of this fold, consistent with a NS-directed compressional regime. The 180 m of unexplained residual subsidence would, under this interpretation, correspond to the elastic crustal depression resulting from compressionally superimposed loading – a mechanism directly linked to Nielsen et al.'s (2007) flexural deepening calculation.
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## 4. Radial Kaolin Genesis Around the Český Kráter: Quantitative Distance Analysis and Geochemical Evidence
### 4.1 Götze et al. (2023/2024): Magmatic-Hydrothermal Kaolin Genesis in the NW-Saxonian Basin
Götze, Möckel, Pan & Müller (2024) demonstrate, from the Kemmlitz rhyolite (~290 Ma, Oschatz Formation, NW-Saxony), that agate-bearing lithophysae formed exclusively in a glassy pitchstone facies of the rhyolite. Fluid inclusion homogenisation temperatures of **134–186 °C** (mean ~160 °C) document that SiO₂ mobilisation commenced *during or immediately following volcanic activity* – thus primarily magmatic-hydrothermal, not supergene:
$$T_h^{\text{min}} \in \{134^\circ\text{C (Gröppendorf)},\; 157^\circ\text{C (Börtewitz)},\; 177^\circ\text{C (Mügeln)}\}$$
The geochemical signatures of the agates are remarkable (solution ICP-MS): $\text{B} = 29$ ppm, $\text{Ge} > 18$ ppm and $\text{U} > 19$ ppm – values significantly exceeding the geochemical background of the surrounding rhyolitic host rocks, pointing to chemical transport reactions (CTR) involving magmatic volatiles ($\text{F}/\text{Cl}$, $\text{CO}_2$) and heated meteoric waters. The rare earth element patterns display pronounced negative Eu anomalies ($\text{Eu/Eu}^* = 0{.}004{-}0{.}16$), slightly positive Ce anomalies ($1{.}23{-}1{.}55$), and HREE enrichment – a classic hydrothermal formation profile.
Kužvart (1992) complements this from the perspective of regional distribution: tectonic predisposition (jointing, cataclasis, mylonitisation) opens parent rocks to kaolinisation agents at greater depth. *In tectonically stressed zones, kaolinisation depth reaches up to 80–113 m* (Lažánky: 113 m; Plenkovice: >80 m; Kužvart, 1992, p. 326). Kaolin is preferentially preserved in **post-kaolinisation tectonic depressions (grabens)** – documenting strong tectonic predisposition for regional kaolin concentration.
### 4.2 Binomial Distance Analysis: Concentration Around the Český Kráter
Under the working hypothesis that the radial and ring fracture systems of the Český Kráter (Rajlich, 1992, 2009) – documented as persistent fluid pathways – induce a spatial concentration of kaolin deposits within a defined radius around the crater centre, the following quantitative examination is performed. The crater centre is taken as the *Mladá Vožice* region (~49°N, 14°37'E; Rajlich, 1992). All distances $d_i$ were calculated according to:
$$d_i = \sqrt{(\Delta\phi_i \cdot 111{.}3)^2 + (\Delta\lambda_i \cdot 111{.}3 \cdot \cos\bar\phi)^2}$$
at $\bar\phi \approx 49{.}8°N$ ($\cos\bar\phi \approx 0{.}649$).
**Table 1:** Distance analysis of Central European kaolin deposits from the Český Kráter
| Deposit / Region | $\phi$ (°N) | $\lambda$ (°E) | $d_N$ (km) | $d_{E/W}$ (km) | $d$ (km) | Within 230 km? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plzeň Basin | 49.75 | 13.40 | +83 | −88 | 121 | ✓ |
| Znojmo | 48.86 | 16.05 | −16 | +104 | 105 | ✓ |
| Karlovy Vary (granite) | 50.23 | 12.89 | +136 | −124 | 184 | ✓ |
| Podbořany/Kadaň | 50.27 | 13.38 | +141 | −89 | 167 | ✓ |
| Ore Mountains N-margin | 50.50 | 13.20 | +167 | −101 | 196 | ✓ |
| Kemmlitz / NW-Saxony | 51.13 | 12.83 | +238 | −130 | **271** | ✗ |
| Lusatia / Caminau | 51.38 | 14.23 | +264 | −29 | **265** | ✗ |
| Lower Saxony (Geiseltal) | 51.35 | 11.95 | +261 | −148 | **300** | ✗ |
Under the null hypothesis of a uniform distribution within a circular area with maximum radius $R_{\max} = 400$ km (plausible range of Central European kaolin deposits), the probability of finding a deposit within $r = 230$ km is:
$$p_0 = \left(\frac{r}{R_{\max}}\right)^2 = \left(\frac{230}{400}\right)^2 = 0{.}330$$
Of $n = 8$ examined major deposits, $k = 5$ lie within 230 km. The binomial probability $P(X \geq 5\,|\,n=8,\,p=0{.}33)$ is:
$$P(X \geq 5) = \sum_{j=5}^{8} \binom{8}{j} 0{.}330^j \cdot 0{.}670^{8-j} = 0{.}0783$$
If the radius is extended to $r = 270$ km (including Kemmlitz/Caminau), $p_0 = (270/400)^2 = 0{.}456$. Then $k = 7$:
$$P(X \geq 7\,|\,n=8,\,p=0{.}456) = \binom{8}{7}0{.}456^7 \cdot 0{.}544 + \binom{8}{8}0{.}456^8 = 0{.}0181$$
At $r = 270$ km, the concentration is statistically significant at the 5% level ($p \approx 0{.}018$). **Interpretation:** The clustering of major kaolin deposits within ~270 km of the postulated crater centre is incompatible with a purely random spatial distribution. This is consistent with Rajlich's (1992) documented ring fracture systems (farthest ring ~270 km from centre) as preferential fluid pathways. Under the Mildner hypothesis, these ring fracture systems would be interpreted as post-cratering, CDF-reactivation-mobilised deep conduits through which magmatic-hydrothermal fluids (of the type described by Götze et al., 2024, as F/Cl/CO₂-rich solutions) ascended into the upper crust.
**Methodological caveat:** With $n = 8$ data points, this analysis retains only an exploratory character. A robust test requires a complete inventory of all Central European kaolin deposits with a distance correlation test (Ripley's $K$-function) and Monte Carlo permutation tests, which cannot be performed here due to insufficient raw data availability.
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## 5. The Storegga Slide, Doggerland Destruction, and the Cartographic Evidence: Mildner's Mercator Map Argument
### 5.1 Data Situation According to Weninger et al. (2008)
Weninger et al. (2008) dated the Storegga Slide to:
$$^{14}\text{C age: } 7300 \pm 30\,{^{14}\text{C-BP}} \;\Rightarrow\; \text{cal. age: } 8100 \pm 100\,\text{calBP}$$
The tsunami involved a slide volume of 2,400–3,200 km³, with run-up heights of 10–12 m on the Norwegian coast and ~3 m in the southern North Sea region. At the time of the event, sea level in the southern North Sea stood at $-17 \pm 2$ m MSL. Doggerland – the then still subaerially exposed shelf between Britain and the northwestern European continent – had been undergoing continuous transgression for several centuries (rate of rise ~1.25 m/100 years; Behre, 2003, in: Weninger et al., 2008). According to Weninger et al. (2008), the Storegga tsunami accelerated and completed the final catastrophic flooding of Doggerland.
### 5.2 Mildner's Mercator Map Argument: "Albionis Pars"
Mildner (2025/2026) refers to a Mercator map (Gerhard Mercator, presumably the *Nova et aucta orbis terrae descriptio* of 1569 or later editions), on which a landmass is recorded in the *Oceanus Germanicus* as *Albionis Pars* – "Part of Britain". Mildner does not interpret this cartographic tradition as an error by the Renaissance cartographer, but as a transmission witness of an early historical or proto-historical geographical reality of a still-extant shelf area that was captured in the ancient or medieval cartographic source tradition.
This argument aligns with the fact documented by Weninger et al. (2008) that Doggerland genuinely existed as a subaerially exposed landmass for a very long time (at least until ~8000 calBP, geomorphologically possibly as a shallow feature until ~7000 calBP) and was inhabited by Mesolithic peoples, as demonstrated by dated mammal bones and human remains ($n = 20$ dates, oldest: ~11,700 calBP; Tab. 6 in Weninger et al., 2008). The *Albionis Pars* transmitted in Mercator's cartographic tradition could accordingly:
1. Transmit Ptolemaic source coordinates capturing a shelf elevation from the period 150 BC to 150 AD; or
2. Directly derive from a Mediterranean or northern maritime trading tradition in which shallow-water structures were recorded as navigational landmarks well into the early Middle Ages.
The principal chronological conflict – Storegga erosion ~8100 calBP, Ptolemy ~150 AD – is addressed in the Mildner model via two explanatory approaches: (a) a postulated recent reactivation (536 AD) generated a **new** slide or sedimentation event in the North Sea northern sector analogous to the Storegga event; or (b) parts of the former Doggerland remained or recurred subaerially owing to tectonic uplift compensation. Both scenarios remain working hypotheses for which no direct stratigraphic evidence from the Late Antique/early medieval transition has been documented.
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## 6. Tsunami Sediment as a Mechanism of Northward Coastal Migration: Physical Estimation
Mildner's core thesis on the northward migration of the *Oceanus Germanicus* coastline by approximately 120 km since antiquity could be explained – complementing a tectonic uplift of the Baltic Plate – through **tsunami sediment progradation** of the shallow water zone northward. A simple volumetric estimate illustrates the physical feasibility:
**Assumptions:**
- Length of the affected North German coastline: $L \approx 400$ km
- Progradation distance: $\Delta x = 120$ km
- Mean water depth of the shallow-water zone to be infilled: $\bar h = 5{-}10$ m (amphibious shallow-water zone after Mildner, 2025/2026)
- Total Storegga slide volume: $V_{\text{Storegga}} \approx 2{.}4{-}3{.}2 \times 10^3\,\text{km}^3$
The sediment volume required for complete infilling of the shallow-water zone over 120 km width is:
$$V_{\text{required}} = L \cdot \Delta x \cdot \bar h = 400\,\text{km} \times 120\,\text{km} \times 0{.}0075\,\text{km} = 360\,\text{km}^3$$
(for $\bar h = 7{.}5$ m as a mean estimate). This corresponds to:
$$\frac{V_{\text{required}}}{V_{\text{Storegga}}} = \frac{360}{2800} \approx 12{.}9\,\%$$
Thus, deposition of merely approximately **13% of the Storegga slide volume** in the southern North Sea/North German coastal region would, in a first-order calculation, suffice to raise the seafloor by ~7.5 m across a width of 120 km and a coastal length of 400 km – and thereby, on a sufficiently shallow gradient, produce the described northward coastal migration. Since tsunami sediment profiles are generally strongly fining-upward in character (cf. Smith et al., 2004, in: Weninger et al., 2008), a differentiated depositional dynamics is to be expected, which would qualitatively produce the same effect.
**Critical caveat:** The modelled core mechanism presupposes that a slide event comparable to the Storegga occurrence took place in historical time (post-150 AD, at the latest 536 AD). Clear stratigraphically datable evidence of such an event from the affected North Sea area is currently lacking. Abbott et al. (2014), however, provide independent evidence through ice-core data (GISP2, depth 362–360 m) for extraordinary atmospheric and possibly oceanic destabilisation processes during 533–540 AD, which could be indirectly connected. The hypothesis is to be regarded as a falsifiable working hypothesis: its test requires high-resolution seismic profiles and isotope-stratigraphic boreholes from the North Sea northern sector covering the 5th/6th-century AD transition.
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## 7. Prehistoric RSL Documentation and the Scandia Argument: Geersen et al. (2024)
Geersen et al. (2024) discovered the *Blinkerwall* in the Bay of Mecklenburg at 21 m water depth: a 971 m long Stone Age hunting architecture comprising 1,673 individual stones. The adjacent palaeolake peat wood was dated to $9{,}143 \pm 36\,^{14}$C-BP (terminus post quem for the flooding); the final submersion occurred during the Littorina transgression at 8.57–8.0 ka BP.
This finding proves that the relative sea level (RSL) in the western Baltic Sea region during the Late Glacial/Early Holocene transition was at least 21 m lower than today and that the region was habitable as a terrestrial landmass. For Mildner's Scandia hypothesis, two consequences follow:
1. **Greater land extent in prehistoric times:** The Scandia island massif in present-day Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was considerably more extensive during the Stone Age than in antiquity (RSL around 150 AD already significantly higher than in the Late Glacial). This supports the demographic pressure mechanism (*vagina nationum*) for the Gothic migration: a successively shrinking island massif increases resource scarcity per unit area.
2. **Precedent for catastrophic transgression:** The Littorina transgression (~8,570–8,000 calBP) is to be understood as an analogue event in which substantial land areas were rapidly flooded. A post-150 AD CDF-reactivated analogue event, *ceteris paribus*, would plausibly replicate the coastal displacements postulated by Mildner for Late Antiquity.
Formally, the RSL index $\eta(t)$ can be expressed as a function of glacioisostatic adjustment $\delta_{\text{GIA}}(t)$, eustatic sea level $\zeta(t)$, and tectonic vertical movement $\epsilon(t)$:
$$\eta(t) = \zeta(t) - \delta_{\text{GIA}}(t) - \epsilon(t)$$
For the scenario postulated in Mildner's model – abrupt tectonic overthrusting of the Avalonian plate onto the Baltic Shield in the 6th century AD – $\epsilon(t)$ would increase by an amount $\epsilon_0 > 0$ (uplift south of the CDF main trace) in a short time, which according to the above equation would immediately cause a negative RSL change on the North German side.
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## 8. Integrated Model Assessment: Convergence of Independent Evidence Chains
The following table summarises the six evaluated evidence chains and their support strength for Mildner's geodynamic model:
| Evidence Chain | Source | Support Strength | Methodological Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithospheric reactivatability of CDF/STZ | Nielsen et al. (2007) | **strong** (mathematically demonstrated) | Different timescale (62 Ma vs. ≤1,500 years) |
| Anomalous Quaternary subsidence in NW North Sea | Arfai et al. (2018) | **moderate** (25% residual unexplained) | Arfai et al. exclude tectonics; Mildner reinterprets |
| Magmatic-hydrothermal kaolin genesis NW-Saxony | Götze et al. (2024) | **strong** (fluid temperatures $>150°C$ documented) | Permian age (~290 Ma); no direct 6th-century linkage |
| Tectonic predisposition of kaolin distribution | Kužvart (1992) | **strong** (regional distribution well documented) | Conventional interpretation: weathering, no impact reference |
| Radial concentration around Český Kráter | this analysis (binomial) | **exploratorily significant** ($p \approx 0{.}018$) | $n=8$; complete inventory required |
| Storegga/Doggerland and coastal migration | Weninger et al. (2008) | **indirectly supportive** (precedent for transgression) | Time lag of ~7,600 years to the postulated 536 AD event |
| Prehistoric RSL/Scandia | Geersen et al. (2024) | **strong** (direct RSL evidence at 21 m depth) | Documents long-term RSL dynamics, not the historical jump |
The synthesis yields: the available key publications provide **no direct falsification** of Mildner's model, as they supply methodologically and substantively consistent mechanistic foundations for the postulated processes. At the same time, however, they impose a terminological and methodological precision that the original formulation still lacks – particularly regarding the timescale problem (past geological processes vs. historical time horizon) and the absence of stratigraphic direct dating of a post-150 AD tsunami or CDF reactivation event.
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## References (APA)
Arfai, J., Franke, D., Lutz, R., Reinhardt, L., Kley, J., & Gaedicke, C. (2018). Rapid Quaternary subsidence in the northwestern German North Sea. *Scientific Reports, 8*, 11524. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29638-6
Deutschmann, A., Meschede, M., & Obst, K. (2018). Fault system evolution in the Baltic Sea area west of Rügen, NE Germany. *Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 469*, 83–98. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP469.24
Geersen, J., Bradtmöller, M., Schneider von Deimling, J., Feldens, P., Auer, J., Held, P., Lohrberg, A., Supka, R., Hoffmann, J. J. L., Eriksen, B. V., Rabbel, W., Karlsen, H.-J., Krastel, S., Brandt, D., Heuskin, D., & Lübke, H. (2024). A submerged Stone Age hunting architecture from the Western Baltic Sea. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121*, e2312008121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312008121
Götze, J., Möckel, R., Pan, Y., & Müller, A. (2024). Geochemistry and formation of agate-bearing lithophysae in Lower Permian volcanics of the NW-Saxonian Basin (Germany). *Mineralogy and Petrology, 118*, 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00710-023-00841-2
Kužvart, M. (1992). Kaolin deposits of Central Europe. *Clay Science, 8*, 319–327.
Mildner, S. (2025/2026). *A new interpretation of Ptolemy's Germania Magna: Employing computer-assisted image distortion of a medieval map by Donnus Nicolaus Germanus to examine post-glacial geodynamics in Europe* [EarthArXiv preprint]. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5313T
Nielsen, S., Stephenson, R., & Thomsen, E. (2007). Dynamics of Mid-Palaeocene North Atlantic rifting linked with European intra-plate deformations. *Nature, 450*, 1071–1074. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06379
Rajlich, P. (1992). *Bohemian circular structure, Czechoslovakia: Search for the impact evidence* [Conference paper]. Geoterra.
Weninger, B., Schulting, R., Bradtmöller, M., Clare, L., Collard, M., Edinborough, K., Hilpert, J., Jöris, O., Niekus, M., Rohling, E. J., & Wagner, B. (2008). The catastrophic final flooding of Doggerland by the Storegga Slide tsunami. *Documenta Praehistorica, 35*, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.4312/dp.35.1
