Formal Out-of-Sample Blind Test and Model Validation for Model v7
June 8, 2026 Reading time: 15 minutes

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**Last updated: Version 7.3 — Appendix C (June 08, 2026)**

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**Scientific analysis based on the primary source:** *Mildner, S. (2026). Geodynamic Reinterpretation Model for Ptolemy’s Germania Magna: General Model Description, Cartometric Foundations*, (v7.3). EarthArXiv (Preprint). https://doi.org/10.31223/X5KB51
([📥 **Download v7.3-PDF**](https://zenodo.org/records/20474381/files/Geodynamic_Model_Description_for_Ptolemys_Germania_Magna___eartharxiv__7.3.pdf?download=1))

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***Disclaimer***

This article presents a formal quantitative validation of the geodynamic reconstruction model introduced in the companion article. It does not constitute peer-reviewed research. All results are based on the publicly available Ptolemaic gazetteer of v7.1. The Saale-Unstrut Fragment Impact and related impact hypotheses remain working hypotheses not confirmed in the peer-reviewed impact-cratering literature.

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Germania Magna Reinterpretation by Sven Mildner Germania Magna Ptolemy Mildner Model Out-of-Sample Blind Test Out-of-sample RMSE RMSE Model Validation Statistics Elster Cluster Appendix C Residuals Kinematic Block Model Zechstein Décollement Bias Test AIC Test Bootstrap AIC BIC Permutation Testing

Statistical Validation Suite: AIC/BIC, Leave-One-Out CV, Bootstrap, and Permutation Test
June 8, 2026 Reading time: 26 minutes

*Supplement to: Formal Out-of-Sample Blind Test and Model Validation for Model v7*

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**Last updated: Version 7.3 (June 08, 2026)**

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**Scientific analysis based on the primary source:** Mildner, S. (2026). *Geodynamic Reinterpretation Model for Ptolemy’s Germania Magna: General Model Description, Cartometric Foundations*, (v7.2). EarthArXiv (Preprint). https://doi.org/10.31223/X5KB51
([📥 **Download v7.3-PDF**](https://zenodo.org/records/20474381/files/Geodynamic_Model_Description_for_Ptolemys_Germania_Magna___eartharxiv__7.3.pdf?download=1))  (mathematical model description)

**Builds upon:** Mildner, S. (2025/2026). *A new interpretation of Ptolemy's Germania Magna: Employing computer-assisted image distortion of a medieval map by Donnus Nicolaus Germanus to examine post-glacial geodynamics in Europe*. EarthArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5313T
([📥 **Download v5.0-PDF**](https://doi.org/10.31223/X5313T)) (descriptive main publication)

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## 1. Background to this Statistical Validation Suite

The companion article established that the kinematic block-deformation model (Model B) outperforms the affine baseline (Model A) by 29–49% in a genuine 70/30 out-of-sample blind test, with the G6 rotation prediction ($r_B = 7.5\ \text{km}$, estimated from a single training point) representing the strongest individual result. The parsimony argument in §14 of the primary preprint invokes the Akaike Information Criterion conceptually to motivate the significance of the blind-test result. This article goes more in detail and presents an Extended Validation Suite for the v7 Model Description according Sven Mildner´s Reinterpretation for Ptolemy´s Germania Magna Description.

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Germania Magna Reinterpretation by Sven Mildner Germania Magna Ptolemy Mildner Model Out-of-Sample Blind Test Out-of-sample RMSE RMSE Model Validation Statistics Elster Cluster Appendix C Residuals Kinematic Block Model Zechstein Décollement Bias Test AIC Test Bootstrap AIC BIC Permutation Testing
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AncientMaps - Geography is a research-oriented platform dedicated to the study of historical cartography, ancient geography, and the reconstruction of past landscapes. The site focuses on the critical analysis of ancient and Renaissance maps, with particular emphasis on Claudius Ptolemy’s Geographike Hyphegesis and the coordinate catalogue of Germania Magna.

Central to the project is the kinematic block-deformation model developed by Sven Mildner, which integrates GIS-based affine transformations, residual analysis, and physically motivated kinematic corrections to reduce spatial discrepancies between Ptolemaic coordinates and modern geography. The platform also examines the cartographic work of Gerhard Mercator and other key figures in the history of mapmaking.

Articles combine traditional historical geography with modern methods including digital cartometry, geodetic rectification, and insights from structural geology and geodynamics. Topics include the re-identification of ancient toponyms and river courses, post-Ptolemaic landscape changes, and the methodological challenges of interpreting historical geographic data.

The site aims to provide transparent, evidence-based analyses supported by statistical validation, falsification criteria, and interdisciplinary perspectives.

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