Version 8/9.0 Update: The Gallia Control-Region Test, Sequential Bayesian Robustness, and the Long-Transgression Falsifiability Programme for Germania Magna

Last updated: Version 8/9.0 (June 19, 2026)


Scientific analysis based on the primary source: Mildner, S. (2026). Geodynamic Reinterpretation Model for Ptolemy's Germania Magna: General Model Description, Cartometric Foundations, (v9.0). EarthArXiv (Preprint). https://doi.org/10.31223/X5KB51 (📥 Download NEW-v9.0-PDF)


Disclaimer

This article is a technical companion piece summarising what is new in Version 8/9.0 of the model. It does not repeat the cartometric, geodynamic, or narrative arguments already presented in the articles listed below — those remain current and are not superseded. Version 9.0 adds three independent robustness checks (a control-region comparison, a sequential Bayesian re-analysis, and a formal statistical power assessment) plus a new monograph part that gives the Long-Transgression hypothesis an explicit falsifiability framework. The model has not been evaluated by peer review.


Why a Fourth Layer of Robustness Checks?

The earlier articles on this site established the cartometric model (the affine baseline and the kinematic corrections), validated it with a formal out-of-sample blind test, and subjected it to a full statistical battery — AIC/BIC, leave-one-out cross-validation, bootstrap, permutation testing, and Moran's I. A subsequent update (v8.2) added an identification-multiverse analysis testing whether the result depends on which modern places are matched to which Ptolemaic names.

Read more: Version 8/9.0 Update: The Gallia Control-Region Test, Sequential Bayesian Robustness, and the Long-Transgression Falsifiability Programme for Germania Magna
Germania Magna Reinterpretation by Sven Mildner Germania Magna Ptolemy Geography Geographike Hyphegesis Elster Cluster Gallia control region test +11
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