Version 8/9.0 Update: The Gallia Control-Region Test, Sequential Bayesian Robustness, and the Long-Transgression Falsifiability Programme for Germania Magna

**Last updated: Version 8/9.0 (June 2026)**

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**Scientific analysis based on the primary source:** Mildner, S. (2026). *Geodynamic Reinterpretation Model for Ptolemy's Germania Magna: General Model Description, Cartometric Foundations*, (v9.0). EarthArXiv (Preprint). [https://doi.org/10.31223/X5KB51](https://doi.org/10.31223/X5KB51)
([📥 **Download NEW-v9.0-PDF**](https://zenodo.org/records/20758648/files/Geodynamic_Model_Description_for_Ptolemys_Germania_Magna___eartharxiv__c9.0.pdf?download=1))

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***Disclaimer***

*This article is a technical companion piece summarising what is new in Version 8/9.0 of the model. It does not repeat the cartometric, geodynamic, or narrative arguments already presented in the articles listed below — those remain current and are not superseded. Version 9.0 adds three independent robustness checks (a control-region comparison, a sequential Bayesian re-analysis, and a formal statistical power assessment) plus a new monograph part that gives the Long-Transgression hypothesis an explicit falsifiability framework. The model has not been evaluated by peer review.*

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## Why a Fourth Layer of Robustness Checks?

The earlier articles on this site established the cartometric model (the affine baseline and the kinematic corrections), validated it with a formal out-of-sample blind test, and subjected it to a full statistical battery — AIC/BIC, leave-one-out cross-validation, bootstrap, permutation testing, and Moran's I. A subsequent update (v8.2) added an identification-multiverse analysis testing whether the result depends on which modern places are matched to which Ptolemaic names.

Read more
Germania Magna Reinterpretation by Sven Mildner Germania Magna Ptolemy Geography Geographike Hyphegesis Elster Cluster Gallia control region test sequential Bayes factor statistical power analysis Cohen's d Long-Transgression hypothesis Littorina Transgression Zechstein décollement geodynamic reinterpretation identification multiverse falsifiability historical cartography Sven Mildner
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